Fyson
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Post by Fyson on May 30, 2020 22:22:50 GMT -5
I am outraged that of all the rounds you could have eliminated you chose the Before And After round.
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Korgu Chideh
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Post by Korgu Chideh on May 30, 2020 22:29:41 GMT -5
Master Kohga: okay before i accept this necklace i have to double check Revali_is_bae_1453: gg Master Kohga: when you said outside sources were allowed did that include an anagram solver Zelda: yes King Mod : Yes CheerleaderImpa: yes Master Kohga: great Chideh Award For Rules Lawyering
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Saas Ko'sah
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Post by Saas Ko'sah on May 30, 2020 22:32:23 GMT -5
I'm happy for Khoga! I think he might have really needed it, and I want to see him plead his case, because I think he could convince some people.
Now he gets to play his idol on someone else if he wants to though, which is super nice, though thanks to the nullifier might not matter.
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Korgu Chideh
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Post by Korgu Chideh on May 30, 2020 22:34:09 GMT -5
surprisingly complex round for what seems like a simple proposition (urbosa isn't immune)
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Saas Ko'sah
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Post by Saas Ko'sah on May 30, 2020 22:40:31 GMT -5
Oh it's insanely complex.
No one knows the nullifier exists other than Urbosa. Urbosa can be immune through her idol, but if she does that she loses her vote. Epona can be immune by combining her half-idol with Urbosa's. Khoga is immune, and he probably thinks that he can make either Revali or Mipha Immune and auto-eliminate the other one, but he doesn't know about the nullifier.
I don't think people know about Urbosa's idol either, but they're kind of assuming it's there, which makes sense.
So yeah, I'm not sure how I would navigate this if I was a player. I'd probably start by trying to convince Urbosa to ditch Epona, but maybe that's not possible, and even if it is, it's risky because it gives Urbosa a lot of control if she knows where the votes are going (though Revali's gale is actually useless if Kohga, Revali, and Mipha vote together).
Does Urbosa have a preference between Revali and Mipha going? That's the real question for me. Or would she be willing to cut Epona? The cards are weirdly in her hands, even though she also probably won't get a vote assuming she does idol.
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Saas Ko'sah
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Post by Saas Ko'sah on May 30, 2020 22:53:18 GMT -5
Actually Mipha, Khoga, and Revali all assume that there is no idol nullifier, so without that crucial piece of info, they might all just vote into Epona (since if Epona is idoled, then either Mipha or Revali will die anyway based on which one of them Kohga doesn't idol).
And then Epona/Urbosa can decide it, if they get on the same page.
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Zelda
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Post by Zelda on May 30, 2020 23:05:36 GMT -5
I am outraged that of all the rounds you could have eliminated you chose the Before And After round. I loved that challenge, but based on the content, it made sense to keep scattergories instead.
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Zelda
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Post by Zelda on May 30, 2020 23:15:40 GMT -5
Also this is SUCH a huge decision for Urbosa. Like obviously she's gonna do her idol on herself, but I actually think it's not in her best interest to keep Epona here. It would be if Kohga were free to take the bullet, but Kohga winning throws a wrench into that.
I think Urbosa is having the right idea, but I'm not sure if Revali is going to be the sounding jury voice on her behalf.
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Korgu Chideh
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Post by Korgu Chideh on May 30, 2020 23:19:50 GMT -5
agreed on revali; necessarily if you send him to the jury he will probably be a little disappointed about that. but famously that is survivor as she is played
it's difficult because the whole point of keeping epona was to be the meat shield, but letting her through to immunity at f4.........devastating, ofc
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Saas Ko'sah
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Post by Saas Ko'sah on May 30, 2020 23:23:54 GMT -5
I see arguments both ways. I don't know that there's a correct decision.
It depends really on a) how confident she feels that she can win whatever the FIC is and b) how confident she feels that she can beat Khoga in the end.
Because if she's not confident in the FIC and she's confident against Khoga, then it makes sense to vote out Revali or Mipha. But if she thinks she can probably win that challenge, then maybe it makes sense to get rid of Epona right now so that she can go to the end with ideal people in Revali and Mipha.
I also kind of disagree in that I actually do think Revali would be an Urbosa vote on the Jury, but I don't think Epona and Mipha necessarily are locked against her. I think Revali respects Urbosa's game, which is why he's so scared to sit next to her.
Honestly at this point I think I want her to just vote Epona and then lose FIC. It would be the most interesting, unexpected outcome. But getting rid of Epona definitely opens up that vulnerability for her game.
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Saas Ko'sah
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Post by Saas Ko'sah on May 30, 2020 23:27:55 GMT -5
I mean Revali literally has said to Urbosa that he wants to vote her out, he can't be too mad if she takes him out. And just knowing Revali (and who his ID probably is) I think he'd forgive her.
I think the correct boot for Urbosa might actually be Mipha since to me it seems like Mipha and Urbosa probably share people who would support them on the Jury? Like they have similar kinds of pitfalls, and I think Mipha going opens up people like Riju for Urbosa. I think people who are willing to vote for someone who challenged/itemed their way to the end are the same people who are willing to vote for someone who was voted out and returned.
But honestly there isn't a wrong decision (well there is but it's hard to know). But there definitely are wrong ways to make the decision that could lead to Urbosa burning votes.
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Saas Ko'sah
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Round 16
May 30, 2020 23:36:49 GMT -5
via mobile
Zelda likes this
Post by Saas Ko'sah on May 30, 2020 23:36:49 GMT -5
And like we have basically all of the info and even we don't know if Urbosa is more likely to beat Mipha or Khoga, for example. I think Revali is probably the worst boot option because I think he's the easiest to beat for Urbosa, but he probably is the most likely Juror to support her so she is correct about that.
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Roscoe
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Post by Roscoe on May 31, 2020 2:52:47 GMT -5
I think Urbosa should vote Revali out. so that Epona can win
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Roscoe
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Post by Roscoe on May 31, 2020 4:06:52 GMT -5
There is a significant chance that this game has both Revali and Kohga at FTC. I feel validated.
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Korgu Chideh
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Post by Korgu Chideh on May 31, 2020 4:53:15 GMT -5
who's a lock for F3* right now. certainly it's easier to answer when this tc is done but even now, kohga's nearly there right? and one of mipha/revali
*love, by the way, that the presumption is so strongly F3. i see no reason to change tack
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