Kass
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Post by Kass on May 29, 2020 17:02:57 GMT -5
Decided to pull together some stats because I'm bored and that last sentence made me go 'huh, I wonder who got the luckiest with the premerge'. This is a list of who each person *hadn't* met before coming into the merge, with living players in bold. I've counted cross-tribe for the first joint TC since there was plenty of time to communicate with a small group of new people. I didn't count the second, because cross-tribe communication wasn't allowed, and I've obviously excluded the 15 player premerge merge.
Epona - 1 (Link) Sidon - 1 ( Revali) Kohga - 2 (Horse, Mipha) Link - 2 (Kass, Epona) Urbosa - 2 (Patricia, Oaki) Hunnie - 3 ( Revali, Patricia, Oaki) Oven - 3 (Kass, Revali, Horse) Patricia - 3 (Horse, Urbosa, Hunnie) Revali - 3 ( Sidon, Hunnie, Oven) Kass - 4 (Link, Mipha, Oven, Oaki) Horse - 4 ( Kohga, Patricia, Mipha, Oven) Mipha - 4 (Kass, Kohga, Horse, Oaki) Oaki - 4 (Kass, Mipha, Urbosa, Hunnie)
Not particularly useful on the whole but there's a few interesting takeaways: Of the five players with 'lucky' premerges, Link was the only one to receive a postmerge vote prior to F7. Of the eight players with 'unlucky' premerges, every one received at least one postmerge vote prior to F7. 4/6 of the currently living players had 'lucky' premerges. Revali is the only player with an 'unlucky' premerge never to have been voted out.
The only living duos who had never met in the premerge are Revali-Sidon and Kohga-Mipha. Each player is solidly pitched against the other in their pair right now. In the connections round, the only players who formed a connection and hadn't met in the premerge were Oven-Horse and Patricia-Hunnie.
Speaking of the connections round, here's a comparison of # of connections made vs # of living players not met in the premerge:
Epona - 5 - 0 Sidon - 4 - 1 Kohga - 3 - 1
Urbosa - 3 - 2 Hunnie - 3 - 3 Kass - 3 - 3 Horse - 3 - 3 Patricia - 2 - 3
Revali - 2 - 3 Oven - 2 - 3 Oaki - 0 - 3
Probably too small a sample size to conclusively determine anything but it's interesting just how stark of an effect it has. There's definitely a huge amount of skill on display from the players at the top too, but the premerge connections seem to have a pretty huge impact on how far a player will get.
Would've been a very different story if Horse's minnow coalition had worked
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Kass
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Post by Kass on May 29, 2020 17:05:28 GMT -5
(I definitely haven't run out of things to do and gotten bored since getting voted out, I don't know what you're talking about )
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Ancient Oven
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*beep*
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Post by Ancient Oven on May 31, 2020 0:51:58 GMT -5
I was taking into account useful relationships via swaps when I said that, but I think its not a coincidence that the "Threats" and the people who talked to the most in F6 Hell were the connections kings while Revali had garbage connections and had Urbosa and the guy talking to everyone. Power splintered inwards and Courage had internal wars but Wisdom was cohesive. Heart Tribe only had 2 members during F6 hell while Stamina somehow had all 6 members of a 5 person tribe. I won't pretend to understand Spirit Orb dynamics but you seemed close as a group. If anything I was surprised no one openly panicked about Stamina having near-majority.
One correction. I had three contacts and Oaki had one. We didn't tell other people we were in contact for distancing purposes.. though it wouldn't surprise me if Oaki slipped on that.
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Ancient Oven
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Post by Ancient Oven on May 31, 2020 2:08:49 GMT -5
Since everyone else is doing it and I feel I owe it to them as an ally I guess I should talk about games from my perspective. I like all of them as winners so other then Urbosa my vote would be undecided.
Urbosa: Day 1 when I met Urbosa: Holy social threat. This person should be on Courage. I can't wait to blindside her later. My opinion of that never changed. Without Urbosa picking me and Revali and talking us into joining forces that alliance never happens. And we needed her because she was getting more intel then us since Popular wouldn't talk to us. So just socially she's got her hands in a lot of pockets. Her saving Epona is a good move in my opinion to have a shield if she's not immune. Although she seems pretty good at that. Considering the Kass vote only happened because her and Mipha were immune I disagree that she's not leveraging wins to further her game. I hope she makes it, I just worry one shield isn't good enough and they vote her out over Kohga.
For me personally though. F8 was a pretty low time for me after losing an idol and then my silly leaf friend. Plus silent treatment from half the game. So when Urbosa, the first time anyone in the game'd offered me anything, was like hey I have an idol if the vote really is you I'll use it on you and we blindside Sidon. I felt like I actually had a partner who wasn't too afraid to take reckless action to achieve victory. So a little kindness goes a long way.
Revali: Revali and I barely talked until Lost Woods. Urbosa told me he understood his position was bad thanks to F6 Hell and he was quick to reaffirm that with me. (I was reeeeeeelly hoping Sidon lost immunity.) The F8 target was his choice, no one else was willing to fight to make it anyone but Kass so he immediately got what he wanted. I think considering he was lacking alliances coming into merge and had to force them with me and Mipha later there isn't much he could do differently, we were forming an F3 before my unfortunate demise. And I don't think he has any items? He's gotten to F5 with straightforward voting with alliances and socially gaining items from other people. It's weird to see a traditional Survivor player in Item Hell 5000.
Mipha: I mean Mipha asked me for an alliance with her and Epona Day 1 so yeah. Although there was that brief moment of horror when a walrus got between us. She told me if she won F8 immunity (a pretty sure thing) she was going to Urbosa to bring us all together so if you're wondering how that happened, Mipha finalized it. From Day 1 she was focused on proactively setting up alliances. Of everyone left I think she's the most tactically minded. I'm shocked y'all actually gave her your stuff but she clearly put more thought into using Ressurection like Exile to talk to the jury then I did. She's put the info to good use putting the spotlight on Sidon/Epona/Kass. I had quite a lot of fun with her as my #2 partner in crime. Considering the tribe was Hella Hostile to her and returnees when she arrived it's a feat that she outlived us despite us being there longer. Also her and Urbosa are scary together. Like evil witches cackling. Sorry Sidon but when you showed me they were claiming (they actually were lying) to you about my evil plot to kill you while we were arranging the Kass vote I thought that was hilarious. I think they just wanted to scare your idol out tbh. We did it eventually!
KohgaDude: KohgaDude is doing his best to roleplay a harmless teddy bear. It's working mostly because all his allies were on top of the tribe so he's never had to do anything. I think its a little boring but I left the game feeling good at him and considering voting him for being the least stabby contestant. So clearly his social game is doing something right. I have no idea what he's actually been doing though because he's been vague towards me all of merge.
Epona: Epona was my #1 from Wisdom. I was almost happy to be voted out instead of her. So you can imagine my growing sadness when she didn't put me in her F6 followed by her being on the Targets Tribe. I mean sure the game pulled us apart but when merge happened she ghosted me. I've never been broken up with in a game before, kinda weird?? I don't blame her for voting me out but I can't see myself voting for her. I also expect that not to matter.
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Oaki
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Post by Oaki on Jun 1, 2020 20:14:00 GMT -5
Oaki had one. We didn't tell other people we were in contact for distancing purposes.. though it wouldn't surprise me if Oaki slipped on that. I told Mipha upon her return so she'd think that the outsiders could happen, but otherwise I did keep that silent. I can keep secrets. Sometimes.
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