alright, time to evaluate my game. working backwards.
kass
revali
kohga
oven
urbosa
epona
mipha
let's talk who my ideal f3 is. at this point, my ideal f3 is with mipha and someone else. that other person is probably revali. case against mipha: i literally worked overtime to save her bc i saw she didnt have any connections, she voted in the minority every time, etc. case against revali: dude was on the backfoot the entire time and literally wouldnt be here if i hadnt saved him with an advantage play. okay, legit, cool.
f4 is tricky. i think kohga could be there, but i dont trust that kohga/revali would let me keep mipha around that long. also, kohga is likely to take revali to the end over me, which i really dont like at all. so, unless kohga changes his tune, he cant make it to final 4. can he make final 5?
i think i can convince mipha that kohga would never take either of us to the end. so the question is, who would be likely to take out kohga at f5 with me/mipha? it's not revali. kohga has no bad faith with anybody. urbosa sees him on the same level as me, so it's a weird joint play. actually wait. i have an idol at final 5. i could just use it. thing is, i think kohga does too? hrmmm. if kohga has an idol, i cant wait until 5 to take him out. so he has to go at 6.
so if KOHGA goes at 6... i need 5 and 4 to be people that would be easy consensus votes for kass and mipha, despite them being on opposite sides of the vote. i need people who would be juicier to target than me. i think that might mean... kass. and like, probably epona?
which would leave me needing oven and urbosa to be the next two out. cool, i can work with that. ive already got kohga regretting not just targeting oven this round bc he sees urbosa and oven being close now. so...
final 8: urbosa or oven goes, depending on who wins immunity. with kohga woke as fuck now, mipha needing me to stay alive, and kass on the anti-urbosa train, i think either is possible.
final 7: the other one left of urbosa/oven goes. i lean on my saving revali to keep him on board there.
final 6: kohga goes. this is the trickiest round by far. it has to be a complete blindside. i think i wait for kohga to mention a name, and then i go with whoever gets targeted to play my extra vote against kohga? kohga goes home 4-3, but i need two people to do it. i think i can get mipha bc kohga has been working against her, same with revali. that also means i cant have revali. so the pitch comes down to if i can get kass or epona on board, which i think i can do. i think a kass/me/mipha f3 would appeal to kass, and i think i have quotes from kohga to flip epona against me.
final 5: kass goes. finally activate my revali hates kass trap card to get them to vote each other. or, i idol, and take out kass with the idol.
final 4: idk if this is firemaking or not. regardless, ideally people realize epona HAS to go here and they all agree not to take her to the end.
so my final 3 is either me/mipha/revali or me/epona/(mipha or revali}?
the former seems open and shut to me. the latter is scary if epona gets to the end, but i also think i can claim actions that she didnt. like how i knew urbosa and kass were targeting each other while epona claimed it wasn't happening. it's a thin margin to work on.
anyway, those are my wordvomit 1:30am thoughts on how i can possibly win this game. i heard from mipha that apparently magda literally called me a "badass" on the jury. and now that oaki's there, i think he'd influence things in my favor given that the plan was for us to work together to sow chaos and play good cop/bad cop? he might be salty but there's not much i can do there when he literally didnt show up for tribal council for 16 hours.