Urbosa
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Urbosa on May 12, 2020 20:34:49 GMT -5
Soooo... Pat was panicking about Horse having thrown her name out and I kinda thought, I have this weak item that would be perfect to assuage that, and giving it to her would probably lock in her opinion of me as someone she can 100% trust. I made an impulse decision on that front and I'm already thinking ugh, that was not something I should have done. So long story short, I don't have Daruk's anymore =/ But on the plus side, I think I have a good relationship with someone I already had a good relationship with. I can be really dumb when I make spur of the moment decisions sometimes >.> Bullshit, Kass. Bullshit. You wanted to cover your ass in case things didn't go according to your plan. Don't pretend like this was some impulsive decision — everything you do is calculated. Every word. Every play. You probably voted Hunnie just to cause chaos as well. When someone shows you who they are — be it in a Large Social Game or in life — believe them. Kass just showed me who he was in this game. Don't tell me you were excited that reward could keep the "core four" safe when you CLEARLY had other intentions from the start. |
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Urbosa
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Urbosa on May 12, 2020 20:59:43 GMT -5
I'm feeling safe because I have the necklace, but I'm also feeling very unsafe. I can assume that Patricia voted Oven since she had the half idol. But... that means that two people independently of us came up with a safe vote and nobody can give me a name (or names) as to who thought Hunnie was a safe vote. So like... we've got a pair that I think needs to be broken, or a secret alliance that are abnormally tight lipped. So while I'm safe tonight, I'm not sure if I'm safe long term since I clearly wasn't in the loop. You and Kass deserve each other. You are terrible liars. |
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Urbosa
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Urbosa on May 12, 2020 22:03:55 GMT -5
I've been doing some detective work, and this is what I'm thinking: Epona was going through an existential crisis for the last 24 hours or so. He wouldn't have had the headspace to come up with anything, and I was checking on him/telling him he was safe and that the vote was going to be split on Link and Horse. Horse knew he was in trouble and I assume voted Link. Patricia felt lost and knew that Horse wanted to split the vote on her, so she played her half-idol in case both Link and Horse had idols. She likely voted Oven independently of anyone just in case it became a 0-0-0 vote. She wouldn't need anyone to work with her on that. That leaves: Sidon Kohga Revali Kass Mipha Oven (I've cut us from the list) The only two pairs I can see in that list are Revali/Kass or Sidon/Kohga. Sidon/Kohga were talking with me a lot and I can't imagine them lying to me again so soon... not if they actually wanted to have a number to work with. So I'm inclined to think Revali/Kass? They seem the least connected to any particular group. Though it could be either. But Revali voiced to me intent to target Hunnie this time because "if Kohga and Sidon did it I'd rather protect them than Hunnie". So even if he didn't do it then, he is doing it now. I'm inclined to protect Hunnie because she hasn't done anything to me and like, she actually asked my opinion on the last vote which is more than other people have done for me. Where's your head at with everything? Sorry if this is super full on super quickly! I could use my leftover rupee to try and buy a flashlight off of them?  I honestly don't have the patience to play along with this charade right now. Could you be any more transparent that you were one of the votes for Hunnie? This isn't a game of mafia, and you are just living up to your reputation as being a shady player. The fact that you'd so willingly toss Revali into harm's way just to maintain this narrative is even more annoying. I can see why you got the boot once before. CLEARLY a round of undeserved immunity is going to your head. |
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Urbosa
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Urbosa on May 12, 2020 22:56:45 GMT -5
So I'm thinking we might be able to muster the votes to neutralize Patricia here. She's one of the most vocal proponents for targeting Oven, and I'm sure those around her are content to target Hunnie as an alternative if the first objective doesn't seem like it's gaining traction. She's close with Mipha. She's close with Kass. She's close with Oaki (or at least I would assume given their history in past rounds), so taking her out might help break up that bloc. I don't know if Sidon or Kass would be on board with that for obvious reasons, but if we could discretely get Horse/Oven/Hunnie/Kohga, and the two of us, then that is at least a start. My concern, as always, will be any kind of idol coming out, but if we are able to ingratiate ourselves with the larger group, play the role of speculation with regard to the vote, and even potentially play along once a name is thrown out, we might have a shot? I'm absolutely on board and that would be excellent. I agree that Mipha and Kass are non-starters on such a venture and would need to be left in the dark. But Patty did just blow at least some of her advantage ammunition. I'm not sure about where Oaki really feels with Patty, but he's kind of venting to me right now about feeling left out and unfairly targeted so I'll try to get him to wax on about where he stands on everyone in general and see if it looks like Patty might be annoying him. I need to revisit my PM history with Sidon to see when the last time we talked about Patty was and if I have a better grasp of where he stands now. On Stamina he was 110% planning to vote Patty out with me, Kohga and Oven right after Oaki but she won that unfortunate individual immunity which is the only reason Oven and I got pitted into a deathmatch instead. I would think that Oven and Horse for sure, and very likely Kohga, would jump at this. As for Hunnie though I have no idea where she actually stands right now because we have hardly been messaging in the last two days. I was hearing some weird rumors that she was straddling the fence between allegiance to Horse and possibly joining with Link and Mipha (and by extension Patty) last round. Playing along with whatever "consensus" name is on the table would be easy cover for a move like this for sure. Everyone is so frayed by immediate back to back tribal they're looking for something easy to agree on. Perfect. Be careful with Oaki, though. He reached out to me with a similar train of thought before launching into an Agatha Christie-like examination of last vote. He wants to pivot suspicion onto either Sidon/Kohga or Kass/Revali, which are interesting plays. He could very well be one of the votes, as the messages seem a little too opportunistic to be wholly, sincerely concerned. Having immunity again gives him more to work with for maintaining confusion. I will try to work my way around the group as well. It may be a good idea for us to distance ourselves from one another as we gauge interest, as we could also easily raise suspicions if we are seen to be actively campaigning to keep two Wisdom players out of harm's way. Hunnie was evidently vocally against a Horse vote last round, so there may be hope there. If it doesn't seem like she would be receptive, we may be able to approach Revali. If he finds out Oaki is trying to toss him under the bus, he may be more inclined to make a move to get some sense of control of his safety. I don't know if he and Patricia have had time to come to terms with past tensions, but it might be worth a shot to try. I just lost my closest ally. As such, I'm implementing a policy of containment here — Hunnie or Oven leaving next would be catastrophic, so I need to make appeals to players' paranoia. I planted the seeds with Epona, who I'm sure has already reached out to Kohga and others. I might just let things develop from here as I head out for the night so I can't be implicated in being the one to openly push something. |
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Urbosa
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Urbosa on May 13, 2020 14:44:00 GMT -5
Urbosa to Oven: We have the votes to keep you, but we need to be discrete in case she has any other advantages.
Urbosa's Subtext: I swear to Hylia, if you run back to Oaki or Mipha and tell either of them there are votes to eliminate Patricia, then there is nothing I can do (or will do) to save you.
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Urbosa
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Urbosa on May 13, 2020 15:14:25 GMT -5
Urbosa to Oven: Lovin' Oven, I need you to make sure that, when talking to people like Mipha and Oaki, you try to pitch them on an alternative vote to show you still have some fight left. I know from past experience -- Link, Sidon, etc. -- that people who come off as calm in the midst of a bandwagon raise suspicion.
Oven: I feel bad leaving Mipha in the dark.
Urbosa (Internally): IF IT'S THAT OR GOING OUT THEN LEAVE HER IN THE DARK.
Urbosa (Externally): I know, I hate breaking with her on this one, too. My top priority right now is ensuring you stay and that no one can play an idol and dictate the results of this vote.
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Urbosa
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Urbosa on May 13, 2020 15:29:13 GMT -5
Soooo, Sidon messaged me about the vote saying he feels really bad about voting Oven out here and Kohga messaged me saying he'd prefer to get Mipha. I'm not sure but I feel like the general feeling is that Patricia might be the one who needs to go and neither of them are comfortable bringing it up with me because they know I'm close to her. Have you heard much about that? I do want to say, I'm fine to discuss Patricia and I'm not going to flip out if she's targeted or anything like that  Kakariko is still my #1 and I want to go the distance, and I'm more than down to discuss anything with you and Sidon (and Kohga now), even eliminating people I'm close to if that's necessary. If Patricia is on the block, I'd much prefer talking it through to everyone being careful what they're saying to me in case they offend me I realise that (re: the potential Pat vote) might not apply to you at all, but I was sending a similar thing to Sidon and felt like I should clarify on that front. Hm. Oddly pointed. This could become a problem very quickly. |
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Urbosa
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Urbosa on May 13, 2020 17:28:32 GMT -5
Planning for the worst but hoping for the best.
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Urbosa
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Urbosa on May 13, 2020 18:37:00 GMT -5
Did I tip Hunnie off to the Mipha vote knowing it would get back to the Zora Champion? Absolutely.
Did I express concerns to Mipha herself? Yes.
Did I express concerns to Revali so that he might take up the charge for a split vote? Yes.
Will this panic serve as a smokescreen to keep me in good with Kass once Patricia is eliminated while giving Mipha the impression I went to bat for her? If I don't get idoled here, then yes.
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Urbosa
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Urbosa on May 13, 2020 18:51:47 GMT -5
Can I force an error with an idol play here. Can I get Patricia to save Mipha thinking the votes are going that way only to have more votes on Patricia?
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Urbosa
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Urbosa on May 13, 2020 21:22:17 GMT -5
Did what I could to keep Hunnie, Oven, and Mipha all safe last round. If Patricia had played her idol for Mipha instead, then it would have worked. Can't blame her for covering herself, though.
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Saas Ko'sah
Sheikah Spectators
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Post by Saas Ko'sah on May 13, 2020 21:22:25 GMT -5
Saas’ Saasy Solicitations
Hello there! Well done on not being one of the first two boots of merge! That would have been extremely embarrassing for you.
1. From your point of view, please summarize what went down last round. What did you think was happening at the time, and how does that compare to what actually happened? Did you expect Mipha to go home? Did you expect Patricia to play her idol? How much influence do you think you had over the way the votes ultimately went and on the outcome?
2. Who do you think is on the top of this game, and who do you think is on the bottom? Would you place yourself on the top, on the bottom, or neither, and why? If you are on the top, what are you going to do to maintain your power? If you are on the bottom, what are you going to do to change your position?
3. At this point in time, on a scale of 1-100, how likely do you think you are to win the game? What steps do you need to take to improve those odds? What pitfalls do you need to avoid to prevent those odds from lowering?
4. Rank the other ten players from who you trust the most to who you trust the least. Please include explanations about what makes each player (un)trustworthy.
5. If I allowed you to bet $100 on whether or not you’d make it to a given placement in the game, what’s the lowest placement I’d need to suggest in order for you to accept the bet? For example, if you think you’re going to be eliminated right now, you’d say 11. If you’re convinced that you’re going to win, you’d say 1. If you think the odds are good that you’ll make it to final six but you’re less sure about final five, you might answer 6. How low do I have to go for you to be comfortable? Please explain your answer. Note: I am making no such bets. I am but a humble shrine. Support your local shrines.
That’s all for now! The spectators love you…r pain and suffering, so keep it up! Remember everything you do is pointless because no matter how good you are, you're probably going to fail anyway.
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Urbosa
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Urbosa on May 13, 2020 22:27:14 GMT -5
So this is a very loaded question with a very involved answer:
The round began immediately on the heels of the last vote. Oaki seemed intent to pin the Hunnie votes on players to (1) create confusion and to (2) float targets under the pretense of being left out of the loop.
Separately, a fragile peace agreement was proposed by Kass to bring together Kass, Kohga, Sidon, Mipha, Patricia, and myself — clearly a play to assuage any anger directed at him for passing his advantage to Patricia. Each of us agreed, but Kohga and Sidon took note. So did Epona. So did most of the people orbiting that sphere of influence. In response, I tried planting the seeds of a plan: Eliminate Patricia to sever her ties to Kass and Mipha — ideally to weaken Kass and to potentially pull in Mipha to work with me and Sidon down the road.
Almost immediately, Oven emerged as Patricia's ideal target. Mipha seemed to jump on board as well. This irritated me, as she readily cast aside the "let's get something with Wisdom going" narrative to align herself with Patricia. Fine. Meanwhile, Epona and I slowly worked our way through the group, gauging interest for a Patricia vote. This conversation eventually developed into: "Patricia would be fine, sure, but why not Mipha?" This line of questioning came from players such as Kohga and Revali, both of whom were likely wary of the potential for Wisdom to try taking out players on the fringes before executing a pagong to the end. Epona and I agreed to entertain the idea of a Mipha vote while trying to steer momentum toward Patricia.
Things seemed to be slowly but steadily building. Then Kass began to probe. I assume one of Kohga or Revali mentioned something to him to raise suspicion, but he immediately began reaching out with the PMs already shared in this Tome. I decided to tell him my vote was on Oven, but that I was open to the idea of voting Mipha (not a lie) if that was what the group wanted. Fast forward a few hours, and I'm sure he had gotten more of a plan out of someone in the group. He undoubtedly tipped Patricia off, which instigated a wave of panic and second thoughts. Meanwhile, Hunnie reached out to me to see if everyone was still on board with Patricia. Cue me telling her people were pivoting to Mipha, hoping that she would warn Mipha from one direction while I approached her from the other. The rest, I think, is in my Confessional. Revali proposed splitting the vote in case an idol was played. Kass told Patricia the vote was being split. Patricia reached out to see what was happening, so I tried to convince her the votes were all piling on Mipha so she'd play her idol to protect Mipha (to keep both Oven and Mipha safe during the vote) while getting the votes herself.
It didn't work, and now here we are.
Kass. It's been beautiful to watch albeit irritating. He's positioned himself at the center of several spheres of influence — Kass, Kohga, Sidon, Urbosa; Kass, Patricia, Oaki, ?; while also having close ties to Epona and, until recently Horse. The past two rounds, Kass has taken steps to reinforce his relationships with Patricia not necessarily to take her far in the game, but to prop her up as a target that will continue drawing votes off of him (it's worked the past two votes). I respect it.
I could easily find myself on the bottom after this round despite letting other players such as Revali take over the wagon, but so be it.
Maybe a solid 5. No one wants to go to the end with me. I had a close ally in Link, but couldn't shift the vote to save him. I tried protecting Wisdom to have a fall-back, but I couldn't save Mipha while also protecting Oven. Kass and I are diametrically opposed. Sidon and Kohga are going to straddle the middle and pass information to whoever suits their fancy until they have no place to turn. Epona, Horse, and Revali are trying to downplay their connection while steering the game toward a Final 3 for them. It's honestly infuriating to see the chess pieces, but I can't take on the entire game by myself.
1. Oven - He's not given me a reason to distrust him. That said, I'd be dumb to sit next to him at the end.
2. Epona
3. Revali
4. Hunnie
5. Sidon
6. Kohga
7. Horse
8. Patricia
9. Oaki
10. Kass
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Kakariko is still my #1 and I want to go the distance, and I'm more than down to discuss anything with you and Sidon (and Kohga now), even eliminating people I'm close to if that's necessary. If Patricia is on the block, I'd much prefer talking it through to everyone being careful what they're saying to me in case they offend me 
I put a conditional vote on Oven, which didn't feel great. If it sounds like things are changing I can adjust before deadline. I luckily have pretty decent access at the moment.
