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oh... poop

I impulsively sent a "I think I'm going to play for immunity PM" and I'm happy to eject myself from the challenge because I clearly can't read.

Alright, sorry about that.

So my thinking (which has just been me mulling things over myself):

Nobody seems to be on good terms with Robbie. I was worried the social tribe wouldn't have an easy first boot, but it seems Riju isn't in as much danger as I thought she was. That is a relief. Chio is also keen to keep Riju around. With three not-Riju votes, I don't see her going.

If Robbie is an easy vote, then we just need him to not be immune. I have no want of advantages. I have want to keep allies close. It's almost as if I have exactly one strategy ever in these games...

Basically if I have immunity than Robbie doesn't. If Robbie doesn't have immunity, I can push the vote onto him instead of onto somebody who I have a good bond with. Also if I *win* immunity, then I'm cleared of any suspicion of maybe having an advantage.

Though Sidon's "we're going to have to be proactive in figuring out what we want to do" is funny because like, I've been proactively doing that for a few PMs now. Good to see I'm ahead of the tribe but not in a way that's been noticeable to them.

At least not to Sidon... maybe we're both being targeted...

Okay so I realise that my confessional is VERY stream-of-consciousy so I'm going to do a quick summary of the first 48-ish hours of the game:

Riju and I bond over sharing game information that both of us already knew. Pretty shallow facade but hey, now we're in good. I made it seem like she was in more danger than she was but I smoothed it all over. True, I thought she was in danger at first but now I'm sure she isn't.

Sidon and I realised that we're both players from an earlier time. No identity revelations, just chatting with a "oh yeah, I'm getting back into the swing of things" and we realised that our bonding was because we were playing to a subtly different metagame than seems to be around now. This bond is a bond that I don't want to break. Us old schoolers gotta stick together, right? Because that never goes wrong...

Sidon and I noticed that Link is a similar player to us, but subtly different. The difference is that he decided to find four people he likes (Sidon, myself, Chio, and Riju) and form a five-person alliance. Like, Riju messaged Sidon saying "hey, Link said I should explicitly ask to ally with you so the five of us can control the game. Worth noting that Link never told me that I was in this alliance, I found out because Sidon told me that Riju told him. Basically Link is one shifty dude who seems to be doing exactly the kind of stuff I would've done five years ago. I love being older and wiser.

Sidon and I weren't born yesterday and know that anybody who sets up a five person alliance is actually creating a core group of three with two dispensable numbers. Considering we found out about the alliance through Riju and not through Link, it's not hard to see that we're four and five. If we don't get a tribe swap, we'll be finishing in seventeenth and sixteenth place. That's not happening.

Link is down to target Robbie. Everybody's down to target Robbie. But, according to Sidon, Robbie is a first-time player. Or is pretending to be a first-time player. In either case, that means he's scared (or is pretending to be scared) and doesn't know what he's doing (or is pretending to not know what he's doing). Which means if we tell him his name has come up but we've got an option for him, he's there. If he's lying or telling the truth he's going to do it out of genuine confusion or out of faked confusion. We need one more vote.

Horsey we don't know if we can trust. He hasn't talked game with anyone yet. That leaves Chio and Riju. The two people who most likely are in Link's core three. So we need them to have a motive to break away from Link's five.

The plan I've pitched to Sidon:
Everybody knows that in a core group of five, you have a three and a two. If I go to Riju or to Chio and say "Hey, Link's told me that Sidon and I are in his core three, but I'm not keen on that because that means cutting you," one of two things happen.

1. They say "hold on, Link told me that I'm in his core three!" and Link looks like a liar. Good-bye Link.
2. They say "Oh damn, it makes sense that Link would want a core three, thanks for warning me!" and Link looks like he doesn't want to work with them long term. Good-bye Link.

The problem with this:

If it's situation two, and they directly confront Link about it, it could get me into hot water. Though, given we're all brilliant socialites, I doubt they're going to confront him head on. Everybody on the tribe comprised of seven brilliant social players is expecting somebody to be a two-timing manipulator. So let's just paint Link as one and prove everybody's paranoia correct. A lie is easy to believe if it plays into everybody's expectations.

I hope Sidon goes for it, but I understand why he might not want to. I just don't want us to be out in seventeenth and sixteenth place.

So... I wake up to find that everything is in shambles but that makes me think that nobody is messing with me because this is an elaborate cover story if they really are trying to blindside me.

So after doing the run arounds.

Robbie's casual "we should just vote Chio" four hours ago turned out to literally be the plan.

I find this hilarious. The newcomer walks into a tribe of socialites, lands himself on the bottom, casually suggests someone, and the lot of us run in circles jumping across three different names to land on Chio.

Not Link. Not Robbie.

Chio.

I... wow.

I love this game.

So, the thought process behind why we're all going with Robbie's very simple "let's just vote Chio" (which Riju and Link have passed off as my idea to paint me as a huge target, thanks for that guys):

This is a complex game. Three people going out off the bat sends us to 18 players. 18 is divisible by three and two, and so we're almost certainly going to a VERY early tribe swap.

If we vote out Robbie, Horse gets annoyed. We go to a tribe swap and might be sent straight into a 1v1.
If we vote out Link, Riju gets annoyed. We go to a tribe swap and might be sent straight into a 1v1.
If we vote out Chio, I'm the only person who could possibly be annoyed. But I'm not. We maintain a unified front and are free to function more freely come the swap.

Of course, if there's no tribe swap we're gonna look awfully silly.