Revali
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Post by Revali on May 13, 2020 19:25:56 GMT -5
So I have the feeling my days are numbered, I did a lot of the legwork in the back half of that vote and while all I mostly did was panic and be like "well let's split the vote" it worked out well, and like, yay. Still Kass will likely be mad, Patricia will likely be mad and who knows where Oaki is at. I feel we can lay down our torches and vote him out but like still, this was a BIG round for me and it seems well, I'm in the majority, a comfortable one at that, gonna be interesting to see if I have the sub-majority and if I die shortly but still, this is a new feeling, I like this feeling. I'm totally gonna die soon.
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Daag Chokah
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Post by Daag Chokah on May 13, 2020 19:36:06 GMT -5
Could you please enumerate the members of the majority for security purposes?
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Revali
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Post by Revali on May 13, 2020 20:32:47 GMT -5
Could you please enumerate the members of the majority for security purposes? Okay sooo Prime Majority - Me, Horse, Epona (maybe Urbosa given how tight we are) Secondary Majority- Sidon, Khoga, Urbosa Tertiary Majority - Hunnie, Ancient Oven, Kass Outsiders - Patricia, Oaki |
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Revali
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Post by Revali on May 13, 2020 20:35:41 GMT -5
What's most important is I pull Urbosa in tight because them Sidon, Khoga, Kass being a 4 would be quite bad, and if necesarry pulling in Hunnie and Oven would be needed to oust that fast.
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Saas Ko'sah
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Post by Saas Ko'sah on May 13, 2020 21:25:17 GMT -5
Saas’ Saasy Solicitations
Hello there! Well done on not being one of the first two boots of merge! That would have been extremely embarrassing for you.
1. From your point of view, please summarize what went down last round. What did you think was happening at the time, and how does that compare to what actually happened? Did you expect Mipha to go home? Did you expect Patricia to play her idol? How much influence do you think you had over the way the votes ultimately went and on the outcome?
2. Who do you think is on the top of this game, and who do you think is on the bottom? Would you place yourself on the top, on the bottom, or neither, and why? If you are on the top, what are you going to do to maintain your power? If you are on the bottom, what are you going to do to change your position?
3. At this point in time, on a scale of 1-100, how likely do you think you are to win the game? What steps do you need to take to improve those odds? What pitfalls do you need to avoid to prevent those odds from lowering?
4. Rank the other ten players from who you trust the most to who you trust the least. Please include explanations about what makes each player (un)trustworthy.
5. If I allowed you to bet $100 on whether or not you’d make it to a given placement in the game, what’s the lowest placement I’d need to suggest in order for you to accept the bet? For example, if you think you’re going to be eliminated right now, you’d say 11. If you’re convinced that you’re going to win, you’d say 1. If you think the odds are good that you’ll make it to final six but you’re less sure about final five, you might answer 6. How low do I have to go for you to be comfortable? Please explain your answer. Note: I am making no such bets. I am but a humble shrine. Support your local shrines.
That’s all for now! The spectators love you…r pain and suffering, so keep it up! Remember everything you do is pointless because no matter how good you are, you're probably going to fail anyway.
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Revali
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Post by Revali on May 13, 2020 23:52:51 GMT -5
Saas’ Saasy Solicitations
Hello there! Well done on not being one of the first two boots of merge! That would have been extremely embarrassing for you. 1. From your point of view, please summarize what went down last round. What did you think was happening at the time, and how does that compare to what actually happened? Did you expect Mipha to go home? Did you expect Patricia to play her idol? How much influence do you think you had over the way the votes ultimately went and on the outcome? Okay so early on I talked to Oaki about the vote and they wanted the round to focus on who voted Hunnie. They asked me who I wanted out of Hunnie, Sidon and Khoga, and ofc I said Hunnie. Oaki used that to go to Hunnie and tell them I was targeting them while I was away and sleeping.
I came back to several messages about me pitching Hunnie, which I did not agree to as a hard plan, and soon it was traced back to Oaki. In fact Horse was not pro a Hunnie vote so I dropped it then. I also talked to Khoga and said I wanted a wisdom gone and they assumed I wanted Hunnie out, so him and Oaki both thought I was going for Hunnie. I was not.
Furthermore, Hunnie made it clear to either Horse or Sidon (I think Sidon) that they didn't want to vote Oven (the only name that had stuck) and well, Oven was a low value vote. So this led to 2 things, me saying to Sidon and Hunnie that 1. I was not voting for Hunnie and 2. I could go onto a non-Oven wagon. Then the night mostly ended for me and the big part of this wouldn't happen until the next day. Oh I also told Epona about what Oaki did (and everyone else who was around that I was not voting for Hunnie) and they were FURIOUS about it. I kind of love Epona, very good ally. I'm curious how much of their demeanor is a put-on though, they seem to understand strategy but also present a sort of unknowing outer appearance, it's quite impressive.
Anyway, next morning I'm in and out and it seems like the idea of not voting Oven has come to fruition with people voting for either Patty/Mipha and a lot of debate. It appears that Oven is on Patty and they are the default, but Mipha also entered the conversation. It's unclear how this happened but probably came from Sidon or Khoga.
Oh and side note, a lot of people tell me there was an attempt to vote me, but Sidon and Khoga said "no" and kicked it to the curb like good allies, at least that's what I was told. Apparently Oaki and Mipha were behind it.
Anyway apparently Kass wanted oven but it's known they'd rather vote Mipha than Patricia. So I spend the rest of the time trying to get them on Mipha and Kass does their own investigation, concludes the votes are there to not Kill Patricia, but there's a wrinkle. Mipha now knows there are votes on them, also there are items abound, oh no what are we gonna do. Additionally Hunnie and Oven are meant to vote Patricia and leaving them completely behind would like jeopardize the relationship I'm trying to actually develop with them.
So I talk with Sidon and we (well I) conclude that we should split votes. Since Kass is a possible leak to Mipha (though who knows) we split with them in the minority as we can't concur on anything. So Khoga and Epona are tasked with voting Mipha with Kass. That leaves Me, Sidon, Horse, Urbosa, Hunnie and Oven on Patricia.
According to Urbosa this is where Patricia comes online hears there are votes on Mipha (and a split on them from maybe me?) and plays their idol while voting Sidon, who apparently knew about said idol.
Now that should mean the vote is 6-3-2-1 Patty-Mipha-Oven-Sidon but it's instead 5-4-2-1 Patty-Mipha-Oven-Sidon which means someone in the Patty group decided to swap to Mipha, i.e one of Sidon, Horse or Urbosa did. Which well, not sure who did but my money would be on Sidon. 2. Who do you think is on the top of this game, and who do you think is on the bottom? Would you place yourself on the top, on the bottom, or neither, and why? If you are on the top, what are you going to do to maintain your power? If you are on the bottom, what are you going to do to change your position? Oh so while Patricia is MAD at Sidon, I still think Sidon is on top. They have positive relations with almost all of the game and almost anything that he wants to happen will happen. A similar thing could be said of Royal Horse, who also seems to be playing strong but also dissapears a lot. Sidon is always central, no matter how much of a "Straggler" he claims to be. I don't think there's any chance you could get a Sidon vote on him without him knowing about it and yeah.
I'm likely in the middle. I have good allies but there are definitely a lot of items and advantages I don't know the locations of. I have positive relationships and a presumable final 3, but not enough knowledge of people to be certain to get what I want. I'm not exactly a goat but I have to navigate my way to the end carefully and try not to get cut by Sidon's #1 alliance, which I'm not sure I'm part of.
Clearly the bottom is Oaki and Patty, who were voted for and left out of everything. No one trusts Oaki and while Patty is not drawing dead they're gonna need to pull a lot of votes to actually get what they want done.3. At this point in time, on a scale of 1-100, how likely do you think you are to win the game? What steps do you need to take to improve those odds? What pitfalls do you need to avoid to prevent those odds from lowering?
Okay so a random chance (ignoring the obvious returnee that will come back again) us 100/11 which is 9. Still Oaki is about a 1 and Patricia about a 4 of winning, so it's actually about a 10. I think Hunnie and Oven also have bad routes to the end and of winning, so I'd say about like a 15 or 16 out of 100. Which well a 15% chance isn't anything to sneeze at it's about 1 in 7, but not great.
Basically to improve my odds I need a path to remove Sidon from having a majority at 7 and make sure I have Hunnie and Oven with tighter bonds. I need Me and the Horses to stay lock step and make us win whatever battle happens mid merge around 8 or 9 and have us in the majority at 7. Which means, I probably need Urbosa on side for that. Basically I need tight allies that trust me. Also need to do more non game talk, I can't just be a gamebot that's a bad.
The worst thing I could do now is get lazy and just assume i'm in the driver's seat, cause I'm almost definitely not. I may easily be the mid merge collateral. I also can't let all the challenge threats make it too far at this point, because well if I'm in trouble at mid merge, I need an immunity run to give me space to scramble.4. Rank the other ten players from who you trust the most to who you trust the least. Please include explanations about what makes each player (un)trustworthy. 1. Epona - They're easily the most entusiastic about my F3 with them and Royal Horse, they share a lot with me and check with me on so much. I adore them and I hope they adore me. Also the righteous anger they had for Oaki was surreal and convinces me they will not drop me unless they absolutely HAVE to.
2. Urbosa - So far has been really open with me about everything and we talk a lot of game. I should get back to not game talk but honestly, we consult each other a lot and I know about their preferences about most people. They may stab me if they think they can't beat me, but outside of that we should be good.
3. Royal Horse - I mean F3 deal. There was some shadiness to them cause apparently they tried to make sure Patty was a wagon, but it was more they wanted to confuse Kass. I think they're committed to me enough to put them at 3.
4. Khoga - We've yet to turn on each other. I think they get that I'm not voting them anytime soon so like, yeah. We should be gucci. I'm not sure I can ever get them to turn on Sidon and they may have an F3 with Patty/Kass but if one of them dies then I become a third Power for an all Power FTC.
5. Sidon - We actually discuss strategy. I think his heart container tribe definitely has ties. Khoga is apparently okay with Kass, so is Sidon, and they likely have tighter relationships they are not revealing with me. Still they're "a bro of a bro" (bro being Khoga) so I think this is a safe spot for them.
6. Hunnie - Look I like them a lot and I understnad they feel over their head. Sidon and Horse seem to be good with them and that should mean that I can have a look inside their brain. Early days but they dropped the idea of voting for me fast, and that says a lot.
7. Oven - Unlike Hunnie I was totally voting for them and came through in the end but yeah. I need to actually talk to them. They seem to like me a little bit and I like them but they could flip on me if I don't maintain the relationship.
8. Kass - I mean I am not trying to kill them at least. I have to talk to them about the last vote but hey, we might be able to repair stuff. But I totally just lied to them and will have to pay the consequences.
9. Patricia - I just voted them like come on.
10. Oaki - he tried to get me killed. He would have been high up on the list before but his true colors have shown and no one, NO ONE trusts them. They've double crossed everyone in the game at least once and so, nope. 5. If I allowed you to bet $100 on whether or not you’d make it to a given placement in the game, what’s the lowest placement I’d need to suggest in order for you to accept the bet? For example, if you think you’re going to be eliminated right now, you’d say 11. If you’re convinced that you’re going to win, you’d say 1. If you think the odds are good that you’ll make it to final six but you’re less sure about final five, you might answer 6. How low do I have to go for you to be comfortable? Please explain your answer. Note: I am making no such bets. I am but a humble shrine. Support your local shrines. 7 or 8. I'd need to think a lot longer but while I am certain my relationship with most people can make me survive a few votes around the mid merge is when I'm likely to either: A. Get cut by one of such alliances for not being in the inner circle or being too big a threat or B. Try to make a move on someone who is too well enshrined in the game and die as a result. That’s all for now! The spectators love you…r pain and suffering, so keep it up! Remember everything you do is pointless because no matter how good you are, you're probably going to fail anyway. |
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Revali
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Revali on May 14, 2020 19:13:05 GMT -5
Update, I am not in the majority. Epona and Urbo ranked me in their top 6 but not Sidon, Khoga or Royal Horse. This is bad, very bad.
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Revali
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Revali on May 14, 2020 19:59:55 GMT -5
Okay so let's speculate. So Epo and Urbo like me, at least enough to have me in Final 6. This confirms a few suspicions I had:
1. I was like a final 8 boot because Sidon and Khoga would want that.
2. Royal Horse wasn't as invested in our Final 3 as I wanted him to be, which means the threatening ideas of him from the jury are definitely intriguing.
3. I need to flip with Hunnie and Oven like yesterday, I am in bad bad bad need of more allies cause the ones I was relying on getting me further in the game is not the one that actually gets me further in the game.
This makes me really really mad cause like I need to take up Patricia's offer but can't openly say that and like, I might have to consider working with OAKI of all people, but hey, ya know what at least I know instead of blindly walking to my death.
Still I'm incredibly worried that the fact that I know I am not in the majority might cause them to cut me here at 11 instead of waiting for me to try and flip the game.
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Revali
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Post by Revali on May 14, 2020 20:02:53 GMT -5
Still I was very reliant on Royal Horse in making my path to the end so now I get to flip my world and turn it upside down.
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Revali
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Post by Revali on May 14, 2020 20:37:04 GMT -5
Epona is really good at calming people down and said all the right things to make me feel...okay with this. I mean I'm obviously not okay but I need to like, not gun for Sidon immediately and let the adults talk for a while. Also I need to consider the paradox that I both am unsure how I can get to the end without Epona and realizing they're way too good a talker and positioned socially for me to beat. That's....gonna be fun. The game is not over, but damn is this gonna be a time.
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Revali
Hyrule Castle
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Post by Revali on May 15, 2020 1:24:49 GMT -5
Okay so while Epona's PoV will likely be the most critical to understanding the round. Here's what I heard. So basically now that Royal Horse decided to go "no Revali is a liar" and I was like "no it's horse" and fortunately Epo believed me, the truth teller. And while I was before mad at Sidon and Khoga, Sidon sent me a message through the Epona Express that has me willing to chill a bit and well, Horse has been sketching them out. We also heard from Hunnie and Patricia about a group being formed of Horse/ Hunnie/Patricia/Oven/Oaki which is well, not one we actually want to happen since horse didn't loop me in (if he did loop me in then well, it would have been a lot more appealing). And as such with Epo and Sidon fed up, it's time to cut out Horse. This should open up Hunnie and Oven to the other wisdoms who are allied with me, and while I don't want that as a final 5, it will enable us to cut up Sidon and Kass, who with Khoga represent probably the tightest trio outside Urbo/Epo and I. As such cutting them out will be needed and likely require Oven and Hunnie to do so. From there I will need to figure out how to houdini Epona out of the finale but I may have to just rely on winning F5 or F4 and convincing Urbo to cut them over whoever else is there, or hope for an F2. Cause well Epona is loyal and good and can win, but I'm not sure I beat them and it's best to have a plan for that before it is too late. Granted Urbosa is also a challenge but we have a very similar path in this game that I think may enable me to get the win. Anyway, so the current vote count looks like this based on what we know: Horse (5): Epona, Kohga, Revali, Sidon, Urbosa Counter Target (4): Horse, Oaki, Patricia, Oven  ?(1): Hunnie Toss-Up: Kass The Goal is to feed Oven and Horse Patricia as a name and hopefully that might get Hunnie and or Oven to jump ship so they don't have a majority to vote over our 5. The secondary idea is just pick up Kass with Sidon and hopefully they want horse out and don't see a problem with voting with me for this round. It's gonna be tricky but if it works out for once, it'll be amazing. |
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Revali
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Post by Revali on May 15, 2020 2:53:57 GMT -5
So Sidon is liking my posts? I uhhhh am gonna have Epona ask him about that, cause that kind of Sketches me out. I just realized that that is exactly how we are supposed to signal who we are voting for between me/epo/horse. Soooo if he's doing that he might be signalling to horse to oust me? Still why do a public thing like that when he could just tell people? Hmmmm....This is weird.
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Revali
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Post by Revali on May 15, 2020 12:46:45 GMT -5
Well, I might be the opposition vote, that's dissapointing but hopefully I'll be able to houdini out of it. It may come down to Kass deciding to kill me or spare me, if that's it then oh god is my position not good, but whatever. If I die I die.
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Revali
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Post by Revali on May 15, 2020 16:36:31 GMT -5
According to Epona we have Kass. Am I sure that this is true? No. Does it really matter? No. Can't really alter my fate at this point. Well I am unable to alter my fate.
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Revali
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Post by Revali on May 15, 2020 18:44:32 GMT -5
For some reason I feel like it's my time, there's always a moment where it feels right and well, for me, I think this is it. I tried though, I wish I got to have an actual challenge in this merge though, maybe if I'm lucky I'll get one, or I'll be able to win my way back in. Still sending Mipha in there is not what I would have done if I knew I'd be next  I wonder if Magda is still kicking? Surely there must have been a pause at some point with these challenges, right? A shame too, I was just about coming around to seeing my real position in the game and maybe if this were a normal round I could change my fate. I mean technically I might not be going but between Khoga and Kass and Horse maybe having items. I don't think we have the victory. Maybe if I'm lucky the target is not on me, but like, eh, they'd be smart to vote me out now, and people in this game seem to be very smart, a lot more than me. |
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